Luck trumps talent in warfare

“We need to get into the multipurpose room.”

I looked up at an intense fellow who seemed out of place at the community recreation center. He reminded me of an attendee at a Star Trek convention – sort of like a nerd on steroids.

I glanced at the schedule and discovered that the room was, indeed, reserved for the morning by a group cryptically identified as “War Games.”

“Don’t worry, we have the room reserved all right. We have it every Sunday.”

The fellow’s tone seemed a bit combative, as if he was ready to go a few rounds with me to fight for access to this public facility.

“Right,” I assured him. “I see you here. ‘War Games,’ isn’t it?”

“That’s us,” he replied. “We need to get in right now.”

“Sure.”

I was a substitute, my usual post was at one of over a hundred elementary-school playgrounds operated by the City of San Diego’s community recreation program. My usual clientele was school-aged children; but I occasionally picked up a few extra bucks working at rec centers on Sundays or other times the ‘grounds were closed.

I was well aware that leisure activity spans a huge range of interests, including all kinds of hobbies. This war gamer was an example from a category I refer to as “fanatics.”

The term isn’t perjorative. Most of us are fans of one thing or another and when we display our enthusiasm, we may appear foolish to the uninitiated. Sports fans are famous for outrageous clothing – sometimes including make-up – and conduct that is excessive, to say the least.

I gained some insight in to the mind of a war gamer that morning when I fumbled with a large ring of keys, trying to find one that would unlock the multipurpose room.

A second fellow appeared on the scene and the two war mong – er, I mean war gamers – began discussing the kind of weapons that could blast a hole in the door blocking their access to the building.

Motivated by their graphic descriptions of “loosing hell,” I renewed efforts to get them inside. They both had suitcases with unknown contents and I wasn’t interested in becoming a part of the “collateral damage” that might result from their application of military force to my door-opening challenge. The term “weapons of mass destruction” had not yet come into popular useage; but I the general idea was coming clear to me.

Finally inside, I watched as more club members arrived with their own suitcases and the group began unpacking model tanks and other combat equipment along with little trees and buildings. They laid out these items in a configuration intended to recreate a famous World War II tank battle somewhere in Europe.

Rows of golf tees were created, oriented point-side-up, to represent smoke screens, lines of infantry and other items that went into the mix.

The idea was to recreate the conditions that existed at the beginning of a battle and then give the players freedom to utilize alternate strategies to determine whether different outcomes were feasible.

After more than an hour of setup punctuated with arguments over the specific makeup and capabilities of various units, the group finally retired to the edge of the room where they opened books of probability tables and prepared for battle.

Despite all of the history, science and application of military tactics involved in laying out the playing field, a winner still couldn’t be determined solely by applying formulae. In the final analysis, the war gamers had to take unexpected factors that can’t be easily quantified into account. In war, it seems, the final outcome is often a matter of chance.

These unknown and unknowable variables were brought into the process after everyone agreed which side had more firepower, a better topographical position, better leadership and a superior battle plan.

The odds favoring success improved with greater numbers, more firepower and superior placement, as along ridges or under cover; but better odds don’t guarantee victory – as any gambler can attest.

After an hour or two of careful recreation of the battle scene, the combatants reached into their suitcases one more time and brought luck into the mix.

They rolled a pair of dice to see which side would prevail.